Following the escalation of animosities between Russia and Ukraine, if military actions are launched, Russia can reach Transnistria on the Danube, northwards the Chilia branch, and this would lead to very harsh sanctions, expert in security issues Armand Goșu, historian and associate professor of the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Bucharest, stated for the Bucharest publication “Republica”, being quoted by IPN.
The expert expressed his bewilderment at the fact that Romania wasn’t invited to take part in a recent videoconference with President Joe Biden, which involved the leaders of Italy, Germany, France, Poland and other states. “Geographically, Romania has the longest border with Ukraine, which is longer than that of Poland. Romania is situated the closest to Crimea, Donbas. Not Estonia, not Norway, not Italy,” said Armand Goșu, noting something like this happens when the political class is a mediocre one.
Speaking about the possible scenarios concerning the situation in Ukraine and about Romania’s vulnerability at present, Armand Goșu said the Russians could set a trap for the Ukrainian troops in Donbas. The Americans could make small concessions or can pretend to be making these and the Russians will say they are satisfied. Putin will save the day, there will be another Biden – Putin summit and the situation will be eased. But there is yet one more probable scenario: Putin went too far and he must give a blow or it will be a defeat for him giving up and withdrawing. It goes to Putin’s prestige and he could do something unusual, like to take a hybrid action that would hide the aggression so as not to immediately attract sanctions from the West.
This can be done through the local army troops in Donetsk and Luhansk. “We speak about 20,000 people who are rather well trained and who can set a trap for the Ukrainian troops and try to engage these into combats,” stated Armand Goșu.
The expert also does not rule out the possibility of a war on a larger front. “Don’t imagine that the Russians will go to Kiev with tanks. The troops of only 130,000 people are not enough for a large-scale operation like the presupposed military occupation of Ukraine,” he said.
Armand Goșu said that another scenario is actions involving a number of brigades near Donbas to advance to the south, to Mariupol, on the bank of the Azov Sea and then of the Black Sea.