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Will we get to the ninth wave of the pandemic? Op-Ed by Ala Tocarciuc


https://www.ipn.md/public/index.php/en/will-we-get-to-the-ninth-wave-of-the-pandemic-7978_1084852.html

From the experience and centuries-old observations of navigators, it is concluded that the ninth or tenth wave within one group is higher and more dangerous than others.  But after this wave usually comes salvation. Will we get to the ninth wave of the pandemic? We will get there if we get vaccinated timely and learn how to live properly with COVID-19. ...…”
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Everyone already knows, not just by hearsay, about COVID-19 and the pandemic waves. Every family has been affected by this virus to some extent.

I recently spoke to someone who has lost very close relatives in this pandemic. It was sad and painful to listen to the confessions of a strong man about the irreversible loss of the loved ones.

I'm kind of tired of saying that "it's a shame to die from COVID-19" and I continue to believe that many human losses can be avoided. We can protect ourselves from illness and death, however not everyone understands that yet.

Some believe that the pandemic is over, others believe that it did not even exist.

The pandemic has been, is and will be with many other waves.

I decided to write about the structure of the pandemic because its waves have already entered our daily lives and become an inevitable part. Currently we have no other choice, we must learn to live with these waves.

The concept of pandemic waves arose from an analysis of previous pandemics, during which there was an increase in the number of patients and deaths, followed by periods of decline, and then again significant increases. Most previous pandemics had two waves each, of which the second wave was usually much higher than the first.

At the beginning of the current pandemic, the forecast of a second wave was also announced, but we see that we already have four pandemic waves.

The virus isn't going anywhere in a pandemic! Between the waves of the pandemic, there are simply fewer cases of disease. People are starting to think the pandemic is over, they're taking off their masks, they're no longer observing social distancing, they're not washing their hands anymore. The virus returns to full force and the number of cases increases.

Assessments and simulations of pandemic waves conducted on various digital platforms have largely supported vaccine approval decisions and contributed to the rapid implementation of vaccination campaigns. The vaccine was developed and intended as a dam in the face of pandemic waves.

Equally, it was also clear that vaccination alone was not enough to stem the waves of the pandemic. In addition, more flexibility and adaptation on the part of people is required to slow down each new wave of the pandemic.

Herd immunity was supposed to stop the waves of the pandemic forever and irreversibly.

Vaccination began very promisingly in many countries during the second pandemic wave. Some countries quickly reached high vaccination rates, over 60%, but the waves of the pandemic in these countries were not stopped. There has been a lot of speculation on this topic that has slowed vaccination to some extent and contributed to the evolution of the pandemic.

It is important to note that each subsequent wave of the pandemic differed from the previous one, with different durations, different numbers of diseases and deaths, and many other local features. This knowledge will help us get through future pandemic waves.

The COVID-19 vaccine isn't perfect, so it can't completely protect us from infection, but it can protect us from a severe form of the disease, and that's important. If we really want to mitigate the pandemic, we recognize that we have no plausible reason to refuse vaccination now, and we are quickly vaccinating ourselves.

In the history of mankind, there are cases when, thanks to the vaccine, the virus disappeared, and people no longer got sick. Antibodies all worked well, and in consequence, the virus could not survive. However, this is not the case with COVID-19. The fact that we have both vaccinated and unvaccinated people in society contributes to the creation of new strains and their replication. If we had done all the vaccinations quickly, we would have left no room for the virus to mutate. Unvaccinated people are now fertile ground for the creation of new strains.

Delta is far from the last strain of this virus, and not the most contagious. There will be many more new strains, and to protect ourselves from them, we will need strong herd immunity.

Strong herd immunity can only be achieved by vaccination. Today this is the only method of protection against COVID-19 disease so far. Modeling behavior in these conditions is only an auxiliary tool.

How is it easier to survive the waves of the pandemic?

In each new wave, we will decide individually. Now, for example, it is important to accelerate the vaccination of the population. By all possible means to achieve group immunity and not leave room for the virus to multiply and create new strains.

We're going to have to adapt the behavior—basically—to each wave. If we get out of the wave, we can relax a little bit, take off our mask. If we enter a new wave, we will again adhere to stricter rules. It's all going to help us survive.

It is good to learn to identify the disease earlier and isolate yourself so as not to transmit the virus. There are many methods for this, and some are very effective.

Every time we have health problems, let's not neglect the danger, but see a doctor for proper treatment. Denial of illness can harm yourself and many people in society.

The pandemic wave lasts three to six months. During a calendar year, we can go through a maximum of two pandemic waves.

Those in charge are now beginning to administer a third dose of the vaccine to have protection in the next wave against the next strain. With this approach, they have a real chance to reach the ninth wave of the pandemic alive and in good shape.

It has generally been observed that in nature waves propagate through separate groups that follow approximately at regular intervals and between which the sea seems less agitated. The waves in each group have a different height, the speed of their propagation is uneven. It is for this reason that the phenomenon of interference occurs, which causes a progressive increase in height.

From the experience and centuries-old observations of navigators, it is concluded that the ninth or tenth wave within one group is higher and more dangerous than others. But after this wave usually comes salvation. Will we get to the ninth wave of the pandemic? We will get there if we get vaccinated timely and learn how to live properly with COVID-19.