In three weeks, the Germans will elect their representatives in the Bundestag – the federal Parliament. Angela Merkel withdraws after 16 years as head of the German government and her party is losing the lead according to polls. However, no matter who forms the new coalition government as a result of the elections, German democracy is not in danger, said political scientist Oleg Serebrian, Moldova’s Ambassador to the Federal Republic of Germany.
Speaking in a debate staged by IPN, Oleg Serebrian said the German political parties with highly radicalized agendas, both of the left and of the right, have relatively modest electoral results, attaining a maximum of one fifth or one sixth of the voters. It happens because Germany has a very old tradition of parliamentarianism,but history taught the Germans “harsh lessons” as regards extremist messages.
Even under a scenario in which the future German government will be “red-pink-green”, which is consisting of the Socialist left (Die Linke), Social-Democrats (SPD) and the Greens (Die Grünen), Oleg Serebrian considers there are no risks as regards foreign policy, at least. “I don’t think Linke will be those who will dictate the foreign policy agenda. The same is true about the European agenda. The Social-Democrats and the Greens are rather pro-European. The problem of (leaving) NATO is not raised in the case of the Social-Democrats. The Greens are also rather in favor of the transatlantic partnerships,” stated the diplomat.
According to him, the problem is how two parties that are apparently close ideologically – the Social-Democrats and the Socialists – can overcome the divergences about Eastern Europe and Russia inclusive if they govern together.
“As to what we, the Republic of Moldova can expect, no matter what the configuration of the future government is, I don’t think the position of Berlin would change radically as regards the Eastern Partnership and the extension of the European Union because the emphases, as I saw them at the major parties in Germany, do not differ considerably. Regrettably, the problem of the Eastern Partnership or the extension to the East of the European Union is usually marginal,” stated Oleg Serebrian.
However, the diplomat made is clear that a coalition dominated by the Christian-Democrats (CDU), which is the party of Angela Merkel, would be more favorable for Chisinau. “The Christian Democratic Union has (...) sympathies for he Republic of Moldova since 2009-2010 – the visit paid by Missis Merkel during the government of the Alliance for European Integration. This sympathy was resumed after the recent elections and after last year’s presidential elections. The Social-Democrats were traditionally friendly towards the EaP countries and agreements with them can definitely be reached.
But the forecasts about the results of the September 26 election to the Bundestag remain “tenebrous” as the options of the voters in Germany can be rather oscillatory.
A poll published last Thursday by Deutschlandtrend shows SPD holds the lead among German voters with 25% and is 5 percentage points ahead of the CDU/CSU bloc. The Greens have 16%, while the Liberals from FDP come next with 13%. The nationalists from AfD of the right have 12%, while the left has 8%. Such a distribution generates a wide variety of possibilities for forming the future government coalition, said Deutsche Welle.
The public debate “Federal parliamentary election in Germany: possible effects for Germans, Europeans and Moldovans” was staged by IPN News Agency as part of the project “Developing Political Culture through Public Debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation.