Analysis by Ion Tabarta: … In the short run, the major goal of the new Government is to prepare the country for the Vilnius summit of this November, considers political analyst Ion Tabarta. According to him, in the long run, the Coalition for Pro-European Government aims to improve governance until the ordinary parliamentary elections as the pro-European and progressive forces are aware that it will be then that the decisive battle with the oligarchic system of Moldova will be fought.
The creation of a parliamentary majority and the investiture of the Government headed by Iurie Leanca brought the political crisis in the country to an end. Being shaken after the tragic hunting incident in the Domneasca Forest, the political class can return to normality now that the Prime Minister and the Speaker were elected.
In general, the current governmental construction is the creation of the leader of the PLDM Vlad Filat. After the common vote to dismiss the AIE 2 Government given by the PCRM and PDM in Parliament on March 5, 2013, followed by the ostracizing of the PLDM leader by the Constitutional Court, Filat was put in front of two major options:
1. To accept the proposal of the leader of the PCRM Vladimir Voronin and to unite with the Communists in order to definitely destroy the informal leader of the PDM Vladimir Plahotniuc, who, as many voices say, is the father of the oligarchic system in Moldova. But, this option would have certainly led to the massive return of the Communists to power and, consequently, would have generated a new oligarchic system in Moldova, controlled by another “Plahotniuc”, who would have been much tougher and severe than the current one. In such conditions, Filat, disappointing again the fake prophets of the ‘theory of the watermelon’, chose the opposite option:
2. To unite with the PDM (and the Liberals headed by Hadarca) and to constitute the Coalition for Pro-European Government, which guarantees the continuation of Moldova’s European course. But this, in fact, means uniting also with Plahotniuc, who, as it is well known, controls the Democratic Party of Moldova. Criticized by many people, the leader of the PLDM, being aware that he cannot fully remove the first deputy chairman of the PDM’s influence on the institutional system of Moldova, chose to minimize, to the greatest extent possible, Plahotniuc’s influence on governance by making the PLDM dominate the new Cabinet.
The negotiations on the creation of a new coalition were very difficult. The oligarchic factor made everything possible to maintain its political influence expressed by institutional leverage. The reputable Western political analyst Vladimir Socor characterized the negotiations between the PLDM and PDM this way: “I would name this actual negotiation a negotiation between the European integration party and the party of blackmail”. The atmosphere of secrecy in the talks derives from here. Everything was decided in the last moment.
It should be noted that some of the goals related to the exclusion of the oligarchic factor’s infleunce weren’t fully achieved. Following the unpleasant experiences of the summer of 2011 and the winter of 2013, the leader of the PLDM learned the lesson that in politicise it is important to be realistic and to obtain the maximum possible at a certain moment and not to try to achieve what you cannot. The PLDM led by Filat not without reason considers that if Moldova comes as close to the EU as possible, the chances of survival of the oligarchic system in our country will be fading away.
The result of the negotiations between the PLDM and PDM disappointed the Liberal leader Mihai Ghimpu, who ostentatiously maintained that the leader of the PLDM wants to cause early legislative elections, arguing that Filat cannot imagine his political life outside a high-ranking post in the state hierarchy. Filat not only showed his ability to take one step backward, but also brought the Liberal leader into a situation of ‘political knockout”, removing the group of Ghimpu from power.
The new Government has a major goal, which is the Vilnius summit of November 2013. During the first few months, the Leanca Government will focus its efforts and resources mainly on obtaining for Moldova more palpable results in Vilnius. In the long run, the Coalition for Pro-European Government aims to improve governance until the ordinary parliamentary elections as the pro-European and progressive forces are aware that it will be then that the decisive battle with the oligarchic system of Moldova will be fought.
The governance of the PLDM, through the agency of the Leanca Government, is Moldova’s chance to have a European future. Blamed and repudiated by the Moldovan state institutions and constrained by the situation, the leader of the PLDM Vlad Filat chose an imposed palliative – to unite with the PDM, which is evidently oligarch-dominated. At this time, this political step is the only step able to maintain Moldova’s European course. Filat sacrificed his own political image and kept the European prospect of Moldova. The ‘wheel of history’ will put all things in order and everyone will be rewarded according to merits.
Ion Tabarta, political analyst, for IPN