The nuclear disarmament of Russia and the disarmament of states are almost impossible in the context of the current security crisis, the director of the Institute of Legal, Political and Sociological Research of the Moldova State University Victor Juc stated in a public debate hosted by IPN News Agency. According to the expert, on the contrary, the international context predisposes to a new armament race and the states will increase their budgets for the defense and security sectors.
Victor Juc noted that after World War II, multiple talks were held on the nuclear disarmament and disarmament of states, but these didn’t produce any results. Russia will not accept to destroy its nuclear weapons and the states that invested less in defense will increase their budgets for armament after the war in Ukraine.
“In the current conditions, it is unreal to speak about the nuclear disarmament of the Russian Federation. We saw how hard it was for inspectors of the International Agency to go to Zaporozhe, which is partially controlled by the Russian Federation and partially by Ukraine. It is not possible for someone to come and check the conditions in which nuclear weapons would be disposed of in Russia. There were several treaties on the limitation of strategic armament in the history of international relations. We remember the Treaty of Reykjavik between Gorbachev and Reagan on the intermediate-range nuclear forces. There were also smaller treaties, but given the current realities, I think the states, on the contrary, will try to arm themselves. The North Atlantic Treaty obliges each member state to spend 2% of the GDP for defense,” stated Victor Juc.
According to him, the international context predisposes to a new armament race. That’s why the demilitarization, disarmament and nuclear disarmament of states are almost impossible.
“The states will not try to become possessors of nuclear armament and to increase the nuclear club. But speaking about nuclear disarmament goes against the current state of spirit. It is impossible to disarm the Russian Federation as the international environment does not favor this process. Full disarmament will be possible only as a result of a nuclear catastrophe, which is unimaginable. The nuclear armament will continue to be used as an element of blackmail and intimidation,” stated the expert.
Victor Juc is skeptical about Russia’s capacity to use the nuclear weapon. The leaders from the Kremlin use the nuclear rhetoric to discourage the opponents, while NATO should come with a clear message as regards the response to an eventual nuclear attack.
“If Russia uses tactical weapons, its territory will also be affected, especially its eastern part. There is only one possibility of counteracting: NATO will come with a clear and direct response if Russia uses tactical or strategic nuclear weapons and the response will be not similar, but much more extensive,” noted Victor Juc.
The debate entitled “Is Ukraine’s victory possible without the nuclear disarmament of Russia? Did mankind reach the point for general nuclear disarmament?” was the third installment of the series “Impact of the Past on Confidence and Peace Building Processes” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation of Germany.