Based on an ordinary cost-benefit analysis, we see that the invalidation of elections affects the immediate interests of the Democrats, expert in political sciences Dionis Cenusa says in an analysis article for IPN Agency.
The expert considers that after the court passed the invalidation judgement, the Democratic Party (PDM) actually returned to the image capital level of 2016. Moreover, the party could lose the EU macro-financial assistance for which it recently made additional effort following the EU’s requests concerning the National Integrity Authority.
According to Dionis Cenusa, there are at least two scenarios that can explain the political calculations concerning the election invalidation.
The first scenario is the invalidation of elections up to the end. If the Supreme Court of Justice also does not confirm the election outcome, a new decline in democracy will be witnessed. Nevertheless, the government will obtain both advantages and disadvantages.
The first advantage resides in the non-admission of Andrei Nastase to his first public post and thwarting of the possibility of obtaining political capital by managing the capital city.
The second advantage is that the Democrats, after the protests launched by the extraparliamentary opposition, could test their social mobilization capacity and the people’s receptivity to protests.
The third advantage is the distraction of attention from the mixed electoral system, which loses topicality amid the crisis around the election invalidation. Last but not least, the upholding of the invalidation will enable the government to test the EU’s firmness as regards the fulfillment of the political preconditions.
The disadvantages include the risk that the EU macro-financial assistance would be put off not only until autumn, but event until after the parliamentary elections.
The second scenario is the validation of elections. In this case, by exerting political influence or by stopping to exert this, the upper court will validate the elections and, respectively, Andrei Nastase will become mayor. As a result, the government will have more chances of obtaining the EU macro-financial assistance in July or in autumn at the latest. Also, the validation of elections can serve as a proof that the Democrats do not control justice.
Moreover, amid the debates on the election validation, an initiative can be proposed to regulate the use of social networking sites for electoral agitation on the election day. This way the government could minimize the political risks that can result from the use of social networking sites or electoral purposes in the future.
Ultimately, based on European players’ reactions as regards the inviolability of the people’s vote, the Democrats would obtain additional guarantees that the results of the parliamentary elections will be accepted regardless of the vote distribution.
The disadvantages for the Democrats that derive from this scenario include the management of the capital city by Andrei Nastase, who will gain instruments to promote his own image and the image of his party, and the promotion of an anti-corruption agenda in the public sphere through Nastase’s presence at the City Hall, concluded the politologist.