Igor Boțan: After elections we will most probably have a center-left coalition

After the parliamentary elections of February 24, a center-left coalition “pro-Moldova” will be most probably formed in Parliament and this will follow the fourth path. This coalition will be formed by the Democratic Party and the Party of Socialists as the approaches of the PDM and the PSRM have been recently very similar as to the position that Moldova should adopt in relation to the great foreign players – the principle of neutral position, expert in electoral systems Igor Boțan, the standing expert of the project, stated in the public debate “Elections 2019: Post-electoral scenarios in view of experts in political sciences, electoral systems and sociology”, which was the 108th installment of the series “Developing political culture through public debates” staged by IPN News Agency.
 
“I think the PDM and the PSRM will go together and this is not related to geopolitics as the geopolitical problems were already solved. Both the Socialists and the Democrats say Moldova should not be in the middle in the confrontation between the West and the East. Both of the parties are pro-Moldova. The fourth path of the PDM is nothing else but concealed renouncement of the European integration, as regards the implementation of the conditions specified in the Association Agreement. Moldova follows the Association Agreement and the Socialists assert the same. Furthermore, Igor Dodon showed he is flexible as in 2012 he saved the European integration when he voted the President,” stated the expert.

He noted he does not see how the bloc ACUM can hold talks with the Democratic Party for forming a government coalition if such a proposal is formulated. “For them, the acceptance of such a dialogue means the end. I understand the policy calculations, but they will probably then think - we either die honorably in the opposition or have early elections as those who formed a coalition with the PDM anyway died later dishonorably. So, the situation for the bloc ACUM is very simple and from this viewpoint we can admit that fissures will appear and will lead to its dismemberment. But they were involved in this situation. In this, they can either die honorably or can die dishonorably,” noted the analyst.

As to other post-electoral political scenarios, Igor Boțan said a variant is for the Party of Socialists to score an absolute victory. “The mixed electoral system can help the PSRM to win this absolute victory. If we take the average and consider that the PSRM’s rating is really of about 40% and this is the first in the options of voters in single-member constituencies, this can mean that the Socialists can obtain enough votes to offset the non-reaching of the equator in the national constituency. If this happens, the PSRM will play the main game and will have a majority in Parliament and the President will be the one who will nominate the candidate for Prime Minister. If it holds a majority, this will vote and then we can guess what the Party of Socialists will do,” he stated, adding that if the Socialists win a majority of seats, they will hold a referendum on the switchover to the presidential republic.

According to the expert, it counts less who will have more votes after the PSRM – the PDM or ACUM. “If the Socialists obtain an absolute majority, they should start negotiations. If ACUM and the Democrats do not come to terms as to the formation of a majority, Igor Dodon is free to start the procedure for nominating candidates for the Prime Minister. In 45 days, he will use up three solutions that are rejected when there is no majority. Or a majority can be formed, but we know how things can develop. Then Igor Dodon, in such a situation, will step by step take the country to early elections and the dissolution of Parliament that cannot provide a solution.”

Igor Boțan considers an alternative is for the PDM is to try and attract MPs from other parties, by already tested methods. This measure depends on the skillfulness of the leader of the PDM, who already showed that he can do this.

However, the mixed electoral system should generally favor the Socialists or Igor Dodon would fall into a trap, stated the expert. “Officially, he is the promoter of the mixed electoral system. Vladimir Plahotniuc, on March 6, 2017, proposed introducing the uninominal system. Now Igor Dodon calls on the people to be ready to take to the streets as, if they do not obtain a majority, there is no other better solution than the early elections. Working as part of a particular coalition would be a failure for him. He should think what to do – to enter the presidential elections or to leave politics. What can he propose in a year and a half at the presidential elections? However, we saw that he can renounce the principles for the sake of stability,” said the expert.

Igor Boțan also noted that the mixed electoral system has several specific features. This goes hand in hand with the march of the so-called charitable foundations. Three parties of the left and the center-left run charitable foundations that allure the people.

The debate ”Elections 2019: Please elect me MP on behalf of the Western diaspora because...”, forms part of the series of public debates held by IPN News Agency as part of the project “Developing political culture through public debates” that is supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation of Germany.