The Socialist Party may gain around 20 seats in the Chișinău Municipal Council, while the Electoral Bloc ACUM might secure 17 seats, out of 51. Other parties would obtain one or two seats. The survey results were presented by the WatchDog.MD community and CBS-AXA at an IPN press conference on Monday, October 7. The survey only polled eligible voters from Chișinău and was carried out between September 25 and October 4.
If CMC elections are held tomorrow, 27.8% of respondents said that they would vote for the PSRM, while 21.7% of respondents would vote for the ACUM Bloc. The Political Party Șor would gain 3.6% of the vote, the Democratic Party - 3.1%, the Liberal Party - 1.8% and the Communist Party - 1.6%, while all other parties would accumulate less than 1%.
19.4% of respondents said that "they will participate in the elections, yet are undecided". 7.7% will not participate in the elections, while 6.7% "will participate and know for whom they will vote, yet will not disclose their choice".
WatchDog.MD expert Valeriu Pașa said that in local, district and municipal councils the distribution of seats takes place much more equitably than in parliamentary elections, due to a lack of an access threshold to the council. The total number of votes is divided by the total number of seats. There are 51 CMC seats. "What is important is that even those who score between 1% and 2% can gain a council seat. Șor Party will certainly have two representatives, PDM - two, PL - one and is unlikely to gain a second seat. This distribution avoids the formation of monopolies in the city council”, explained Valeriu Pașa.
The percentage of residents who would vote for the PSRM candidate Ion Ceban is 25.7%, while 19% said that they would vote for Andrei Năstase, the ACUM Bloc hopeful. The former mayor Dorin Chirtoacă would secure the support of 5.1% of the electorate, the PDM hopeful, Vladimir Cebotari, would gain 2.5%, while Octavian Țîcu, the National Unity Party candidate, would be supported by 2% of the voters. All other candidates would accumulate less than 2%. 21.5% of the respondents answered that they will vote, yet are undecided who to vote for. 9.6% replied that they will vote, yet they won't disclose their choice. 7.1% will not participate in the elections.
Compared to the survey presented two weeks ago, the WatchDog CBS-AXA poll shows a reversal of leaders, Ion Ceban almost doubling his support. Valeriu Pașa explained that several factors affected the results, namely that among the 11% of the respondents who declined to name their candidate of choice, most likely there were many PSRM voters. "A number of previously undecided voters support Ion Ceban now. The previous poll attributed 6% of the vote to Ruslan Codreanu. Apparently, the exclusion of Codreanu from the race greatly favors Ion Ceban. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain Ceban's support growth”, said Valeriu Pașa.
Asked whether they will participate in the elections set for October 20, 62.5% said that they would definitely vote. 14.4% of the respondents said that they will vote if nothing prevents them from casting the ballot. "In total, these two categories account for 76.9% of voters. These respondents are being considered very motivated to participate in the elections set for October 20", said Vasile Cantarji, CBS-AXA sociologist. According to him, the intention expressed by the respondents does not necessarily translate into reality, because many factors can determine a motivated person not to vote.
The poll surveyed 502 residents of Chișinău municipality aged 18 years and older. The sample is representative for the adult population of Chișinău. The survey has a 4.4% margin of error, while the data was collected in the field and via telephone.