Economic growth of the next three years is seen optimistic by authorities
Ministry of Economy and Commerce forecasts an average annual economic growth rate of 4-5% for the following 3 years. This level will be attained through decreasing inflation rate, ensuring and maintaining the stability of the national currency exchange rate; concentrating local and foreign investments mainly in the productive sphere; the growth of the share of gross added value in industry and services in the structure of GDP; the increase of the coverage of imports through exports; improvement of the imports’ structure through the replacement of some types of imported goods with local production etc.
According to the preliminary forecast of macroeconomic index for 2008- 2010, in the mentioned period, the exchange rate of the national currency will remain stable. This process will be mainly assured, through entries of remittances. The average annual exchange rate in 2008 will reach MDL 13.8 per 1 US dollar, reducing slowly in the next 2 years down to 14.2 lei.
It is considered that the maintenance of the exchange rate stability will contribute to the stability of prices. The index of average annual consumption prices is estimated at 108.7%, 106.9% and 105.5% for 2008 to 2010.
The main factor which will contribute to the maintenance of these paces is the increase of investments in fixed capital with an average rate of about 11%, which leads to a cumulative increase of 37% in the next three years. The capital investments will contribute to the creation of new workplaces, increase in the competitiveness of local products on the foreign markets, increase in the internal offer etc.
Exports will increase in 2008 to 2010 by circa 12% annually, as result of utilising tariff facilities Moldova benefits from the free trade agreements within the South East Europe Stability Pact; liberalisation of access to the markets of World Trade Organisation member-states and by taking advantage from autonomous trade facilities from the EU and others.
Imports will grow in the aforementioned period by about 11% annually, being determined by the increase of the investment inflows, especially of machines, electric appliance, and mineral products. The highest share in the total volume of imports will be as usually covered by the energy resources, due to the economic growth planned in the basic sectors of the economy, especially because of the prices of natural gas.
The average wage in economy will increase by 1.6-fold during 2008-2010 and will reach MDL 3250, and the Wage Fund will increase by 1.5-fold, amounting to MDL 23.4 bln or 34% of the GDP, compared with 29.3% in 2006.