Most of electoral promises are not financially justified, Expert-Grup

The candidates running for President make promises that are not financially feasible, in particular in the social and economic spheres. They do not specify how and from where they will take the necessary financial resources and instruments from to deliver the made promises. For example, according to the most conservative calculations, Igor Dodon’s electoral promises are estimated at about 120 billion lei during a four-year term or at 10-11% of the GDP and at 37% of the national public budget estimated for this period, shows an analysis conducted by the Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup”.

The analysis authors say Maia Sandu proposed a program of 50-55 billion lei or about 5% of the GDP, while Violeta Ivanov’s promise to raise the minimum pension to 5,000 lei necessitates investments of about 25 billion lei a year or 100 billion lei throughout the four-year term. As the budget deficit in 2020 was estimated at 8% of the GDP, while the pension system is in deficit, it’s clear that most of these electoral promises are not feasible, even if external financing from the West or the East is attracted, as the candidates promise.

Renato Usatyi promised to fight corruption, which is welcome, but some of the actions promised by the candidate do not seem feasible because the President does not have such powers and because no details are provided as to the sources of financing and instruments for implementing the promises.

In the case of Andrei Năstase, many of his commitments do not match the President’s mandate or, in his wish to do justice, he is ready to go behind some of the limits that separate the state powers. At socioeconomic level, Năstase aims to increase the quality of people’s lives, but the objective of enshrining the minimum income above the poverty line in the Constitution, including the minimum pension of 2,500 lei, is rather populist in character and non-sustainable given the available resources.

The electoral commitments of Octavian Țîcu, who promotes unionism and the Euro-Atlantic course, match more or less the powers of the President. The essence of his electoral promises is that the country will be removed from international isolation and he will implement economic, education and security integration projects with Romania. The candidate didn’t provide estimates of the costs and details about how he intends to implement his electoral agenda. He also does not present his view on a series of areas and challenges faced by Moldova.

Dorin Chirtoacă, the supporter of unionism and European integration through union with Romania, proposed a program aimed at improving the socioeconomic relations with Romania. Given that there is now no roadmap for forging the union and Romania and Moldova remain two distinct states, the given promises seem to be a mirage. In fact, probably the absence of pragmatic approaches in the programs of the unionist candidates explain their low scores in the previous elections, which are much lower than the number of respondents who would vote for the union with Romania in an eventual referendum.

The analysis was carried out by Expert-Grup in partnership with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Moldova.

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