Inflation peak is forecast for October-November, NBM governor

The inflation peak is expected in October-November and a downward trend is anticipated to follow later on condition there are no new shocks. The food products and regulated products remain the main sources of inflation. The forecasts were presented by the governor of the National Bank of Moldova Octavian Armașu in a news conference on Tuesday, IPN reports.

“The annual growth rate of food prices will reach the highest level in the first quarter of the forecast period and will then follow a downward trend, starting with the next quarter. The annual pace of regulated prices will rise until the end of this year and will then significantly decline starting with the first quarter of 2023. The annual rate of fuel prices will increase in the first two consecutive quarters covered by the forecast and will decrease considerably starting with 2023 until the end of the forecast period,” stated the governor.

The annual average rate of inflation in the second quarter of this year was 29.3%, up 10.2 percentage points on the previous quarter. The adjustment of tariffs, the increase in fuel prices and the ascending dynamics of salaries supported the rise in costs for business entities, having a gradual impact on prices.

The impact of the aforementioned factors was significantly amplified in the first half of this year by the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, which generated additional pressure on foods prices, fuel prices and some of the subcomponents related to the basic inflation.

The prices of food, energy and other goods and services will continue to rise in the nearest future, the National Bank of Moldova anticipates.

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