Ex-adviser to President Putin about Moldova in eventual Ukraine war scenarios

The biggest war will yet follow. It is presumed that the Kremlin in the near future will resort to a new wave of mobilization and, in order to strip Ukraine of Western armament supplies, Putin could hit again from the north, from the Belarus territory, along Ukraine’s border with Poland, towards Lvov. Another blow, to counteract the supply through Romania, could be given in Budjak – a region with a complex ethic component that is least loyal to Kyiv, while the extension of the invasion into the Gagauz autonomous unit and the Transnistrian region of Moldova can lead to the transformation of Chisinau into a vassal of the Kremlin.

Such opinions were formulated by Andrey Illarionov, former adviser to the Russian President Vladimir Putin, IPN reports, with reference to Ukrlife.TV.

“This is nothing more than a hypothesis, but similar schemes were applied by the Red Army also in World War II, in Hungary in 1956, in Czechoslovakia in 1968, in Georgia in 2008, in Ukraine in 2014,” argued the expert.

Illarionov presumed that one of the main military supply arteries of Ukraine goes through the Ukrainian Budjak in the southwest of Odessa region. He said this area between the Prut, Danube and Nistru, has a complex ethnical component with the lowest level of pro-Ukrainian sympathies and neighbors Gagauzia, an autonomous territorial unit that forms part of the Republic of Moldova, where the support for Putin stands at 90 – 99% and which is geographically close to the Russia-controlled Transnistria”.

“Under such circumstances, it can be theoretically admitted that a Russian land assault operation in Budjak is possible as this region is situated relatedly far from the resistance centers of Ukraine and I presume lacks sufficient defense capacities. From there, they can invade Gagauzia to advance towards Transnistria. This way, they can also try to replace the power in Moldova, depending on the situation. We know that such an attempt was made last year and the new government in Moldova could bring to an end any assistance for Ukraine via Romania and Moldova”.

Illarionov noted that the scenarios can seem fantastic, exaggerated, but this can be the way of thinking of the General Head Office of the Russian Army. Approximately the same schemes were applied in 2008 in Georgia, he stated.

In case of an eventual success of the assault operation by attacking Ukraine through the north and the south, Russia could take control of the whole neighboring country and it would not go to actions on a limited section of the front, as it happened on February 24. “But these are just suppositions that may not come true, God willing,” concluded the expert.

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