Electoral Barometer - 2019. How will new Parliament look like?

The Party of Socialists (PSRM) could get 48 seats of MP in the future Parliament - 25 by the general vote and 23 in single-member constituencies. The electoral bloc ACUM that consists of the Party “Action and Solidarity” (PAS) and the Party “Dignity and Truth Party” (PPPDA) would gain 28 seats – 14 by the general vote and 14 in single-member constituencies. The Democratic Party  (PDM) would obtain 18 seats of MP, mainly in single-member constituencies. The data were presented by the polling company Date Inteligente SRL in the first edition of the Electoral Barometer – 2019.

In a press release that is quoted by IPN, the company said the data of the last Public Opinion Barometer (POB) were used for the general vote results, with the mention that Date Inteligente presumes the Shor Party will pass the election threshold of 6%. In the POB, this party would gain 5.9% of the vote of the undecided electors. As the POB, Date Inteligente believes the Party of Communists (PCRM) has chances of passing the election threshold, as other parties.

As to single-member constituencies, the company anticipates the National Unity Party (PUN) could gain a seat from the diaspora from western countries. Only one candidate actively campaigns in this constituency and this represents the PUN. The PCRM could win a seat of MP in single-member constituencies, most probably in the Criuleni – Dubăsari constituency. The Shor Party could emerge victorious in two constituencies in Orhei district, but could also produce surprises in other constituencies.

The PSRM has big chances of winning in two constituencies on the left side of the Nistru, in the two constituencies of the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia, in the western diaspora and in Taraclia, 11 seats in northern Moldova, five in Chisinau and four in the southern districts. The PDM would win mainly in the central and southern districts of Moldova, as ACUM. But Date Inteligente does not anticipate that other candidates than those of ACUM and PSRM would win in the municipality of Chisinau. At least there are no powerful candidates in other parties who would intend to  struggle in Chisinau.

At the moment, not many candidates announced their participation in single-member constituencies. The situation in many single-member constituencies could change, mainly in the central and southern ones. The election of the MP by the first round of voting only is another factor. This means a candidate could win the seat by 25% of the poll if there also are other powerful candidates. This makes the forecasting of the winner much more difficult.

Date Inteligente anticipates that almost half of seats of MP would be held by the PSRM, while ACUM would be the second force by the number of seats. Of the parties represented now in Parliament, only the PSRM and PDM would return to Parliament based on the general vote, while the Liberal Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the European People’s Party of Moldova would not. For the first time in the last 20 years, the PCRM could not enter Parliament under its lists. The new parties would be the PAS and PPPDA, of the bloc ACUM, the Shor Party and, eventually, the PUN with an MP.

The company announced it will weekly issue the Electoral Barometer – 2019 as of December 5 to  present the most probable configuration of the new Parliament that will be elected according to the mixed electoral system. Changes will appear from one issue to another depending on the obtained information and the evens that can alter the situation in the general vote or in particular constituencies.

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