Citizens’ preferences at presidential election: Maia Sandu, Igor Dodon, Ion Ceban, IMAS poll

If the presidential election was held next Sunday, out of the total respondents of the Sociopolitical Barometer for May 2024, conducted by IMAS, 32.5% would vote for Maia Sandu, 16.4% for Igor Dodon, while 5.9% for Ion Ceban. Of those who made up their minds, 41.3% would vote for Maia Sandu, 19.3% for Igor Dodon, while 7% for Ion Ceban. If Maia Sandu and Igor Dodon reach the second round of voting, over 43% of the total respondents would vote for Igor Dodon, while over 41% for Maia Sandu. Of those who decided how to vote, over 51% would vote for Igor Dodon, while almost 49% for Maia Sandu.

In a press conference hosted by IPN, IMAS director general Doru Petruți noted that the poll was conducted only on the territory of the Republic of Moldova and, besides the respective results, there will also be diaspora votes. On the political right, only Maia Sandu has an important rating, while on the center and the left, the list of candidates is long and the votes will be dispersed among a number of candidates.

The poll also shows that the majority would vote for Maia Sandu considering the external orientation and external achievements, good results and accomplishments, but also because she is smart, responsible, competent and modest. Those who would not vote for Maia Sandu would not do so because they consider that she does not fulfill her promises, the prices are high and the economy is poor, or because she has no achievements, meaning she has done nothing.

When voting in the presidential election, most of respondents said that they would take into account the work of the party supporting the candidate, the ideas and values promoted by the candidate and also the personal qualities.

The poll also shows that 22% of the respondents have a lot or enough confidence that this autumn’s presidential election will be free and fair, while 64% have very little, no or little confidence. About 70% believe that a runoff vote will be necessary to elect the President. Also, over 60% say that the postal voting that will be available only to Moldovans in particular countries is discriminatory, while about 30% consider that at a first stage it is correct to do so.

To other questions, 40% of the respondents answered that the country was going in the right direction, compared to 36% in February 2024, while 52% said it was going in the wrong direction, compared to 59% in February 2024. PAS voters are 84% satisfied and say the direction is good.

Almost 80% of the respondents see their future in the Republic of Moldova, while 20% rather abroad.

Some 94% know that the population census is carried out in the country and 58% have been interviewed within it. Only 5% said they had not been contacted about the census, but even if they were, they would not take part in it. Over 44% said they speak Moldovan at home, over 30% - Romanian, while 21% - Russian. Also, almost 72% consider themselves Moldovans, 11% - Romanians, while 6% - Russians.

According to Doru Petruți, 47% of the respondents in February considered that holding a referendum on EU accession will be useless, but now things changed and 55% consider the referendum will be useful. Also, 54% agree that the referendum should be held mutinously with the presidential election. In the referendum, the majority would choose the European orientation.

If snap parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, about 70% of those polled said they are determined or very determined to vote for a particular party. Of the respondents who have a voting option, over 42% would vote for PAS, over 28% for the BCS and about 15% for “Victory” Bloc.

The sociological research was commissioned by Independent News of Romania and was carried out during May 2-19, 2024. It covered a sample of 1,088 respondents from 89 localities. The margin of sampling error is ±3%.

Note: IPN Agency offers the right of reply to persons who consider themselves targeted in the news made from the statements of the organizers of this press conference, including by facilitating the organization of another press conference under similar conditions.

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