Average annual inflation will reach 13.7%, NBM governor

Inflation will continue to reduce rapidly during this year, entering the upper limit of the variation corridor by the end of December. Average annual inflation is set to reach 13.7% this year and 5.5% next year. Statements in this regard were made by the governor of the National Bank of Moldova, Octavian Armașu. According to him, a stronger fiscal impulse is needed to stimulate economic activity during 2023.

According to the NBM governor, recent developments in annual inflation validate the correctness and appropriateness of the restrictive nature of the previously adopted monetary policy measures. The annual inflation rate in the fourth quarter of 2022 had a downward trajectory and registered 30.2% in December 2022, compared to 34.6% in October 2022, as a result of a decrease in contributions from all subcomponents. In average terms, the inflation rate was 32.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, by 0.1 point lower than the level anticipated in the November 2022 Inflation Report.

“Inflationary pressures are also decreasing from the side of industrial prices, whose rate saw a downward trend in the last two months of 2022”, stated Armașu.

Among the factors that will influence the decelerating inflation are the recent electricity tariff adjustments, the continued easing of imported inflation, as well as the continued moderation of oil prices on international markets.

The NBM governor added that the events associated with the military conflict in Ukraine and potential escalations continue to present risks and uncertainties regarding the short- and medium-term inflation outlook. “The NBM will continue to carefully monitor the internal and external macroeconomic situation and adjust the monetary policy instruments to achieve its fundamental objective of ensuring and maintaining price stability”, emphasized Octavian Armașu.

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