For the presidential runoff vote, a very important moment is for Maia Sandu to be able to maintain this activism of the diaspora and to mobilize the voters in the country so that they go to the polls. The result of the discussions with the leader of the Our Party Renato Usatyi is another aspect, stated political commentator Ion Tăbârță. According to him, for the runoff vote the government will excessively employ administrative instruments and will apply the scheme with Transnistrian voters. A lot will depend on the level of vote rigging, transparency and democratization of elections.
Contacted by IPN for a comment, Ion Tăbârță said that even if the power misused the administrative resources and had slight temptations to rig the elections, the population in the period got used to a particular level of electoral democracy and this was seen in last Sunday’s elections, especially in the diaspora.
As to Igor Dodon’s assertion that the voters from the diaspora and those from home are two parallel worlds and the voters abroad are not representative, the commentator said this is a method of not admitting particular realities in relation to the Moldovan citizens. There are different types of voters inside the country. “For example, the north has been “red” either it was the Communist or the Socialist period. The vote in ATU Gagauzia and Taraclia is considerably ethnic in character. The central districts, the municipality of Chisinau are tied to the political right, to pro-European, pro-Romanian values. There is also now the diaspora, which is clearly pro-European. These are citizens who lived in different conditions, under the rule of law, transparency, etc.” explained Ion Tăbârță.
According to him, the fact that a candidate of the right gets a higher score when the political left primarily dominates in Moldova is somehow a novelty and a signal of a change in Moldovan society. The polls during the last few years shaped the tendency of the citizens with pro-European, pro-Romania views and a decline in the number of those who orient themselves to the East or the past.
The support for the PAS candidate in the runoff, announced by representatives of the political right, was expected. As to the left, Violeta Ivanov of the Shor Party hasn’t yet declared something, but will definitely support Igor Dodon and her voters will migrate to this candidate given the rumors about the negotiations held behind the scenes and the prefigured new government with the involvement of the Party of Socialists and the Shor Party. The Shor Party has well-developed networks, such as the social stores that have rather good databases, with mainly elderly voters. These will be told who to vote for through the agency of these networks.
Ion Tăbârță said a lot will depend on the discussions between Maia Sandu and Renato Usatyi set for today. The fact that the two openly inform about this is beneficial. They will most probably find common points as they do not seem to have major disagreements on key matters, like the snap parliamentary elections. The two parties are the only parties that really want snap elections and the political context advantages them. The PAS would increase its political influence, while the PPPN would enter Parliament.
But it is not for sure that the voters of Renato Usatyi will concertedly support Maia Sandu as these voters are different and, even if their vote is anti-Dodon, this might not turn into a pro-Sandu vote. “The question is, will these voters go to the polls and if, being ethnic voters, they will vote for Sandu. The ethnic vote is usually centered on candidates of the left,” stated the political commentator.
As to messages formulated by Igor Dodon after the announcement of the results of the first round of voting, he said this candidate starts his attacks. For the runoff, Dodon will have an attack campaign, aggressive in relation to Maia Sandu, the opposition and even the development partners.